Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Emerging and Future Technologies (EDUC - 8342C - 1)

MODULE 5 - ASSIGNMENT

BLOG POST ON RED QUEENS AND INCREASING RETURNS

In the video, Dr. Arthur (2014) talks about the significant presence of technology as intelligence takes the central part in the world of the digitized economy that is coming in a short distance. Watching the video made me realize better what Dr. Thornburg (2013d) said about the existence of cooler toys in the world of tomorrow where technology advances exponentially to produce an extrapolation of the past.

W. BRIAN ARTHUR: TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION

According to Dr. Thornburg (2013d), many factors contribute to the rate of acceptance and impact of technology in the public sector depending mainly on the capabilities and quality of the technology itself. In the following video, Dr. Arthur (2012) explains about complexity economics which looks at the world in a different perspective compare to standard economics, and it uncovers networks of connections that standard economics overlooks.


W. BRIAN ARTHUR: COMPLEXITY ECONOMICS

According to Dr. Thornburg (2014e), complexity and chaos theory is a section of mathematics from where the theory of increasing returns came into existence. Furthermore, Dr. Thornburg (2014e) states that complexity and chaos theory works in the non-linear process to form incredible applications where the students of the 21st century have to be exposed in school to prepare themselves to face a variety of wonders in every day.
The force of increasing returns

The fifth force that contributes to the development of an emerging technology is increasing returns (Laureate Education, 2014e). Dr. Arthur (1996) states that the force of increasing returns drives the chosen one by the consumers emerging technology or product to push its capabilities and quality that is already further advanced compared to the other emerging technologies or products in the public market to stay further ahead.



THE FORCE OF red queens

The sixth force that contributes to the growth of an emerging technology is “Red Queens” (Laureate Education, 2014g). Dr. Thornburg (2014) outlines that “Red Queen” is present in emerging technologies where two competitors who are ahead of the rest of the companies race each other in a battle through time to improve the capabilities and quality of their technology or product to attract more consumers to buy their merchandises.


netflix

In module 4, I used Netflix to watched the movie Next (2007). Netflix is one of the videos on demand (VOD) services where customers have to pay a monthly subscription to watch movies or TV shows. I still remember the battles between Blockbuster and Netflix where Blockbuster had to file bankruptcy in September of 2010. The Netflix vs. Blockbuster [Infographic] depicts than Blockbuster had a chance to buy Netflix in 2000 but the company decided to reject the offer of $50 million. The infographic shows it was the beginning of a new era of entertainment that caused Blockbuster to go out of business and not Netflix which successfully stole the market Blockbuster needed to move for themselves.
mcluhan's tetrad
DVD VS. VOD

Figure 1 - DVD's Decline in Sales (Click to Enlarge
In McLuhan’s tetrad, the four criteria of laws of media empower us with excellent ideas to analyze new and emerging technologies from the time they come to existence all the way to the present day and beyond (Thornburg, 2013c). The two technologies try to compete in a battle to gain as many consumers as they can get. At first glance, it looks that we will have a race of "Red Queens" where DVD and VOD will face each other continuously running faster one from the other to increase sales by improving their capabilities and quality. At second glance, we realize that DVD's sales are dropping down compared to VOD's sales. In fact, figure 1 demonstrates Netflix's DVD Revenue where we can see that company's DVD business has been slowly dissembled (Bradwell, 2014). Perhaps, one of the main reasons behind DVD's decline in sales is that DVD do not have much room to grow in quality (Mearian, 2014). Moreover, the cost of DVD drives consumer away from buying DVDs because they have to pay money for gasoline to drive to the store (Long, 2016). Lets us not to forget those DVDs can not compete against Video on Demand because they can not offer what VOD offers to their customers (NewsUSA, 2016). Video on demand is more convenient for the young generation, and it is quicker accessible (Rick, 2012). As a result, both technologies hit the market, and they are still competing, but Video on Demand seems to become the innovation that the clients prefer to go with, and it will be driven by the force of increasing returns to continue to reach further ahead (Laureate Education, 2014e).

Netflix, Digital Video Disc (DVD), Video on Demand (VOD), Read Queens, Increasing Returns, Retrieval, McLuhan’s tetrad
References
Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100–109.
Bradwell, J. (2014, August 12). What's the State of the DVD Market? VOD Professional. Retrieved from http://www.vodprofessional.com/features/whats-the-state-of-the-dvd-market/
BrightSight Group. (2014, August 18). W. Brian Arthur: Technology and Innovation [Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-5ed3nLrnw
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014e). David Thornburg: Increasing returns [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014g). David Thornburg: Red queens [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
Mearian, L. (2014, May 2). Bye-bye, Blu-ray: Video-on-demand and streaming options are gaining on you. COMPUTERWORLD. Retrieved from http://www.computerworld.com/article/2488931/data-center/bye-bye--blu-ray--video-on-demand-and-streaming-options-are-gaining-on-you.html
NewsUSA. (2016). Video On Demand Vs. the DVD Market. Retrieved from http://www.newsusa.com/articles/article/video-on-demand-vs.-the-dvd-market.aspx
Rick, C. (2012, March 29). Streaming Video On-Demand to be King of Entertainment as Disc Fall? Retrieved from http://tubularinsights.com/streaming-video-ondemand-vs-dvd/
Thornburg, D. (2013c). Emerging technologies and McLuhan’s laws of media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.
Thornburg, D. (2013d). Red queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.
World Economic Forum. (2012, March 31). IdeasLabs 2012 - Brian Arthur - Complexity Economics [Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx-pRkp7pM8&feature=youtu.be

Friday, July 22, 2016

Emerging and Future Technologies (EDUC - 8342C - 1)

MODULE 4 - ASSIGNMENT

Blog Post on the Disruptive Power of  Google Glass
AND ITS PRECURSORTHE MIT SIXTHSENCE PROJECT

According to Dr. Thornburg (2014a), one of the six forces that drives emerging technologies is the force of disruptive technologies.  As an educator, it is imperative to familiarize myself with the six forces that drive emerging technologies. Watching the video and listening to Professor Clayton Christensen of Harvard University who is associated with disruptive technology talking about what disruptive technology is and what it does was a fascinating experience (Laureate Education, 2014a). 


To understand what disruptive technology is let us imagine of an emerging technology that is doing well on the market. Now, a new technology comes out of nowhere and starts competing with the emerging technology. The new technology takes over the emerging technology because it is less expensive for the consumers to buy. Moreover, it has the potential to do whatever the emerging technology does but more resourcefully. In the end, the new technology becomes the disruptive technology which forces the emerging technology to become obsolete (Laureate Education, 2014a). Google Glass and the MIT SixthSence Project are examples of disruptive technologies. The MIT SixthSence Project is based on the idea of interacting the virtual world with the physical world (TED India, 2009). Moreover, Google Glass enables people to connect and communicate in an instant (Google Glass, n.d.). We can understand more about disruptive technologies by studying and analyzing them. Let us look closer at a technology such as Google Glass to be able to answer vital questions about it.


GOOGLE GLASS
Why is a technology such as Google Glass a disruptive technology?
According to Dr. Thornburg (2014a), a disruptive technology is a wild card that comes out unexpectedly as a new product with the ability to change the nature of the game by eliminating the long term of an emerging technology which has no security. Also, the new technology can be cheaper in price to attract customers rapidly, and its functionalities are working productively.
Figure 1 - Doctors take a quality picture with the Glass while a nurse adjusts the light (Click Image to Enlarge)
Google Glass has all these characteristics to be a disruptive technology. Google class becomes suddenly for the doctors of the Division of Pediatric Surgery of Maria Fareri Children’s Hospital of Westchester Medical Center a portable information and telecommunication technology that advancing in a breathtaking speed (Muensterer, Lacher, Zoeller, Bronstein, & Kübler, 2014). Figure 1 shows that Doctors take a quality picture with the Glass while a nurse adjusts the light. Furthermore, Google Glass disrupts the way healthcare functions as a powerful too.Google Glass disrupts the way healthcare functions as a powerful too. Doctors wear the technology that recognizes the emergency room when they walk into it (Ashier, 2014). Now, a doctor can read the medical data of the patient on the Glass while he/she talks and examines the patient. (Ashier, 2014). Lastly, the price for Google Glass is $1,500.  Perhaps, the consumer does not want to pay the amount to buy the product because it is expensive. The client may want to wait until the wearable device arrives on the consumer market and its price goes down to $229 (Tofel, 2013). A disruptive technology can turn from formerly expensive when it becomes available in the market to a low price that is affordable to the consumers (Laureate Education, 2014a).


What technology did Google Glass displace?
Figure 2 - Google Glass (Click Image to Enlarge)
When it comes to Smartphones, consumers think about two big companies such as Samsung and Apple. These two companies always compete which one to create the best phones in the market. Now, there is another company with a reputation that can put the end to the competition between Apple and Samsung. The name of the company is Google, and it can use its disruptive technology “Google Glass” to cause probably the end of the Smartphone wars (Shaughnessy, 2013). Furthermore, Figure 2 shows how the Google Class works. The device has a camera that can be used in two different ways. This wearable technology enables users to take pictures or videotape an event. Also, Google Glass uses the phone speakers to allow clients to communicate with each other. Who needs a camera to take pictures or to record a video? Google Glass can replace a camera or a video camera with the functionalities the technology has.

What are the social benefits and the social implications of Google Glass in your industry?
Google Glass can change positively the educational industry where I am. In the video, you can see how Google Glass can transform medical education. Doctors and students wear Google Glasses, and they can communicate with each other. Now, this disruptive technology enables the professor to have an assessment tool where he can look at the activity pupils undertaking exactly through the students supplies. 
As a result, the instructor will be able to achieve the following things
  • to see his learners’ eyes where their land primarily
  • to find out what the thoughts of his pupils are and
  • to know what the decisions of his students are (UA College of Medicine, 2014).
Alternatively, the wearable computer technology we call Google Glass can cause a social implication 

in the education industry. It will enable students to take notes when they go to class. Moreover, the 

technology can allow pupils to carry on with the courses their take, but learners will lose their 

privacy (Lemas, 2013). Disruptive technologies have entered the sacred grounds of domestic and 

private life (Katyal, 2013).

Figure 3 Wearable Emerging Technologies 
(Click Image to Enlarge)
How many years does technology have left before another emerging technology or disruptive technology replaces it?
Technologies have to help organizations to solve real problems in life. Moreover, it is significant to know how many years the emerging technology such as Google Glass a futurist wants to bring to his/her organization has to reach maturity and adoption. According to Garter’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies (2015), wearable emerging technologies have 5 to 10 years to reach the cycle of maturity, adoption and become mainstream. Figure 3 depicts that wearable technologies are under the Peak of Inflated Expectations step which is the second phase out of Gartner’s Five-Step Hype Cycle a technology has to go through to reach the mainstream. 

Disruptive Technology, Google Glass, The MIT SixthSence Project
References
Ashier, B. (2014, March 10). Google Glass could be a powerful tool for disruptive innovation in healthcare. Healthcare IT News. Retrieved from http://www.healthcareitnews.com/blog/google-glass-could-be-powerful-tool-disruptive-innovation-healthcare
Gartner. (2016). What’s New in Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2015. Retrieved from http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/whats-new-in-gartners-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2015/
Google Glass. (n.d.). Retrieved June 7. 2014, from http://www.google.com/glass/start/
Katyal, N. (2013). Disruptive Technologies and the Law. Geo. LJ, 102, 1685.
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014i). David Thornburg: Science fiction [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
Lemas, M. (2013, December 2). Students study Goggle Glass’ effect on education. Daily Trojan. Retrieved from http://dailytrojan.com/2013/12/02/students-study-google-glass-effect-on-education/
Muensterer, O. J., Lacher, M., Zoeller, C., Bronstein, M., & Kübler, J. (2014). Google Glass in pediatric surgery: an exploratory study. International journal of surgery, 12(4), 281-289.
Shaughnessy, H. (2013, March 3). Does Google Glass Spell The End of The Smartphone Wars? Forbes. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2013/03/03/does-google-glass-spell-the-end-of-the-smartphone-wars/#145e1e2e21ed
TED India. (Producer). 2009. The thrilling potential of SixthSence technology [Video file]. Retrieved June 7, 2014, from http://www.ted.com/talks/pranav_mistry_the_thrilling_potential_of_sixthsense_technology
Tofel, K. (2013, August 2013) Why Google Glass costs $1,500 now and will likely be around $299 later. GIGAOM. Retrieved from https://gigaom.com/2013/08/08/why-google-glass-costs-1500-now-and-will-likely-be-around-299-later/
UA College of Medicine – Phoenix. (2014, April 10). Google Glass Transforms Medical Education [Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HQa_Af3Gaw
Tofel, K. (2013, August 2013) Why Google Glass costs $1,500 now and will likely be around $299 later. GIGAOM. Retrieved from https://gigaom.com/2013/08/08/why-google-glass-costs-1500-now-and-will-likely-be-around-299-later/
UA College of Medicine – Phoenix. (2014, April 10). Google Glass Transforms Medical Education [Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HQa_Af3Gaw




Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Emerging and Future Technologies (EDUC - 8342C - 1)

MODULE 3 - ASSIGNMENT

BLOG  POST ON RHYMES OF HISTORY TECHNOLOGY
Introduction
People believe in the idea of something that happened in the past it may happen again in the future. According to Dr. Thornburg (2014h), the rhymes of history is one of the six forces that plays an influence on the expansion of emerging technologies. In a similar way, Mark Twain’s quote reminds us in a unique way that we cannot see history happen again in the future, but what we can experience is the rhymes of history (2014h).

As a futurist, I will have to use McLuhan’s tetradic model to figure out what emerging technologies I should advise my organization in respect of decisions on which/when to adopt them (Laureate Education, 2014f). In fact, I will not recommend to the institute where I work a new technology that will be outdated in a short period. In the third quadrant of McLuhan’s tetradic model, the futurist has to go back in time historically to discover what rhyme(s) of an old technology exist in the new technology (Laureate Education, 2014f).
Ancient Bracelet

Figure 1 - Ancient Greek Bracelet
Wearing something on your wrist goes all the way back to the ancient times. The ancient Egyptians wore bracelets as an attractive piece of jewelry (LeGrand, 2016). The way ancient Egyptians used to make their bracelets was of multiple stains of colored gemstones.  Colors played a crucial role for the ancient Egyptians because they believed that colors play the role of aspects of their responsibilities. The pharaoh and his priests wore ornaments and crowns with gold or yellow color (LeGrand, 2016). These two particular colors were associated with the sun in ancient Egypt. The ancient Greeks wore jewelry included bracelet for the wrists all the way back as 1200 BC (LeGrand, 2016). The ancient Greeks had a strong belief in their gods and symbols. They were jewelry that reflected the prosperity of the society. The Romans also wore jewelry with gemstones that we use today. The Romans treated the jewels they wore with respect (LeGrand, 2016). Moreover, the Roman women used the gems they wore as a way to protect themselves from anyone who tried to attack them. When jewelry was made out of gold coins, one of the things that became popular was bracelets for the wrists (LeGrand, 2016).

The Cicret Bracelet
Figure 2 - The colors of  the Cicret Bracelet
The Cicret Bracelet is not a simple bracelet, but it can turn into an actual tablet on your skin (CN2P, 2016). Now, you can use the device and do the same things you do with your tablet. There are many possible things you can do with the Cicret Bracelet.  You can check and send e-mails throughout the day. If you wish, you can use it to search and read the news online. The Bracelet allows you to navigate with Google Earth and go anywhere around the world for free (CN2P, 2016). Moreover, you can take some time off and play with it one of your favor games for relaxation. You may check how the weather will be for tomorrow or the entire week. You can use it to watch a movie or listen to music. Figure 2 displays the variety of different colors the Cicret Bracelet is available. The device comes in 10 different colors. Also, you may use the Bracelet as a cell phone device to answer calls that you are getting or to make any phone calls that you want to make (CN2P, 2016). It comes in two sizes which are 16 GB and 32 GB, and it is water resistance. 

Figure 3 - The Components of The Cicret Bracelet
Figure 3 shows the components of the Cicret Bracelet that are arranged in a circular way: Memory Card and ROM, Processor, Vibrator, Micro USB Port, Battery, Proximity Sensor Long Range, Pico-Projector, Bluetooth Low Energy, Led, and Snap Button (CN2P, 2016). Each element of the Cicret Bracelet represents something critical. Figure 1 also depicts an ancient Greek bracelet where the items of the old Greek bracelet represents something important. Both devices were used to beautify the world of the individual who wore them respectfully.  The movement of the wrist makes each device to come alive. 

Figure 4 - The Timeline of  The Cicret
Bracelet Emerging Technology
The Cicret Bracelet is a wearable technology that has water resistance capability. According to Gartner (2015), Wearables have the ability to mature and reach mainstream adoption within 5 to 10 years. In Figure 4, the timeline of the Cicret Bracelet shows that it is a new emerging technology.  In reality, this wearable device is a technology that goes back in time all the way to ancient Egyptian bracelets.  Also, the components of the Cicret Bracelet represent a broad range of applications. Therefore, the Cicret Bracelet is a new technology that emerges as a rhyme of history (Laureate Education, 2014j).
Websites 

Tags: cicret, bracelet, cicret bracelet, wearable, application, water resistance, tablet, gem society, article, myth, magic, sorcerers, stone, rhythm of history
References

CN2P. (2016). Cicret Bracelet. Like a tablet, but on your skin. Retrieved from http://www.cicret.com

Gartner. (2015). What’s new in Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. Retrieved from http://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/whats-new-in-gartners-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2015/

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014f). David Thornburg: McLuhan’s Tetrad [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014j). David Thornburg: Six forces that drive emerging technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014j). David Thornburg: Six forces that drive emerging technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
LeGrand D. (2016). Early History of Jewelry: Ancient Times to the 17th Century. International Gem 

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Emerging and Future Technologies (EDUC - 8342C - 1)

Module 2 - Assignment

Blog Post on Emerging Technologies Tetrad

Students can use a free Web-based application called Google Docs where enables them to create Documents, Presentations, Spreadsheets, Drawings and Forms. Learners have to create a Google e-mail account because they have to log in to their accounts to be able to use the applications. Furthermore, the use of Internet access and a browser such as Google Chrome, Internet Explorer, Firefox, or Safari are necessary for pupils to be able to access Google Docs. Whatever pupil constructs can share it with others and it can be saved online. The student can access his/her work anytime from anyplace the learner wants to with the use of an iPhone, Mobil phone, tablet, laptop, or desktop.

I had my experience as a student using Google Docs to complete one of the assignments in another course I was taking towards my doctoral degree at Walden University. Google Documents enabled me to work in collaboration with two classmates to complete an assignment online.

Moreover, my group used the chat feature Google allowed us to use to communicate with each other. When I use Google Docs, I do not have to worry about where to save and backup my documents because Google takes care of it. When students work with Google Docs, they use the cloud. Google enables students to have more flexibility to complete their assignments when they work together because the work students have to create is done in the cloud.

At the place where I work, instructors are afraid of using an emerging technology because they believe that they have to spend a lot of time to learn how to use the features of the new technology. Google enables educators to spend more time helping students and less time figuring how to use the new features of Google Docs.

            According to Thornburg (2014f), a tetradic model allows us to see how powerful the technology is in a way that the more we know about the technology, the better way to learn how to use the new technology (p. 1). The laws of media are very useful in a way that permits us to explore an emerging technology by enabling us to choose or reject the technology (M. McLuhan & E. McLuhan, 1992).  According to Thornburg (2013e), the following tetrad uses the four laws of media, which are Extension/Enhancement, Closure/Obsolescence, Retrieval, and Reversal.

                                                             
Extension/Enhancement:
Multiple users
Different locations
Chat Feature
Use of cloud
Closure/Obsolescence:
It replaces the traditional way processing application programs work.

Retrieval/Rekindles:
Group work
Share a file
Access a file
Use of Disk Drive or e-mail attachment
Reversal:
Emerging Technology that allows
Visual contact
3D Space
Capable of talking to each other in real time

One of the new things, Google Docs does is to enable multiple users to work on a group project from geographically different locations at the same time. This emerging technology uses a Chat Feature to permit users to communicate with each other while they work online collaboratively. Also, the technology allows students to access their documents 24/7 on the cloud.

The emerging technologies started to obsolete the traditional way processing application programs work offline such as Works, Word Perfect, Microsoft Word, and Apache Office.

The technology rekindles from the past the ability that a user can operate in a group with other members that they can be able of retrieving their files from a disk drive or e-mail attachment.

In the end, the technology that is going to replace Google Docs in the future can be an emerging technology where students face each other in a 3D space. While pupils try to work together, learners can communicate by talking to each other in real time. Each student will have the ability to add his/her part of the assignment to complete the entire task. Finally, the group can be able to look for the whole job and finalize it.

The following is a list of links that help us to explore more about Google Docs the emerging technology.




Tags: Emerging and Future Technologies, Technology, Identify, Emerged, tetrads, grow, clusters, chains, McLuhan’s Laws, Google, Web-based application, Google Docs, Documents, Presentations, Spreadsheets, Drawings and Forms
References
Laureate Education (Producer). (2014f). David Thornburg: McLuhan’s Tetrad [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.
McLuhan, M., & McLuhan, E. (1992). Laws of media: The new science. University of Toronto Press.
Thornburg, D. (2013e). Emerging technologies and McLuhan’s laws of media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.